It was 60 days ago that Morgan Rogers stood on the Stadium of Light pitch, appearing bewildered while his coach scolded him for failing to anticipate a through-ball. At that point, as the club failed to win in six, doubts remained whether Rogers' form were a symptom or the reason for the team's wider issues.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
On Sunday, in contrast, the touchline reaction proved to be far more favourable. After the England international curled home his second to reinstate Villa's lead, the boss discarded his jacket, spread his arms and roared. The team continued to a tenth straight victory , having failed to win their initial half-dozen games, are somehow just three points behind table-toppers Arsenal.
Is This Team Legitimate Hopefuls?
That’s an exceptionally difficult query to address. The historical record, the traditional standing of the club, suggests not. Furthermore, they've rarely been entirely convincing this season, while the victories have stacked up.
According to statistical analysis, on just two occasions has the side registered an expected goals figure significantly higher than the other team. For a club who have strung together ten consecutive victories, Villa appear strangely fragile – but currently the fine lines are going in their favour.
The Reliant Strategy
The current approach appears to be to engage in a shootout with the opposition before hoping their star man to save the day with two crisp finishes. This was the case away to Leeds, it transpired against West Ham, and again versus United.
Rogers' first goal stemmed from a superb shot, bent just inside the upright from the edge of the area. The follow-up goal proved to be a slightly less clean iteration of the opener as he seized on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Reason suggests otherwise. During the latest victory, Manchester United had more shots and more efforts on goal. The team has triumphed in eight consecutive games by the narrowest of margins. They have allowed goals in all but one of those games.
A statistical correction might be the most significant challenge Villa have to face over the coming weeks. The forward, almost certainly, cannot maintain blasting the football past despairing goalkeepers week in, week out.
Reasons for Optimism
Could it be another reality in which, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, the level of play rises to match the results. Vital cogs could still find their top level.
- The main striker could start finding the net regularly.
- The attacking talent may rediscover the player he showed in Germany.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are set to come back from the treatment room, strengthening a periodically leaky defensive unit.
Maybe within that lies the seeds for a sustained push, but they surely can continue to depend solely on Morgan Rogers.
Enjoying the Ride
However, nobody expected this. It seemed improbable Aston Villa would sit in a Champions League place in December. And certainly back in October, nobody thought the young forward now would be leading a hunt for the title while establishing himself as an essential England player.
This winning streak should be enjoyed exactly since it seems so surreal. As the match-winner faced the home supporters at the final whistle orchestrating the applause, it was clear to be relishing every moment. Which he fully merits. These runs of form are uncommon in the sport and must be appreciated.
