A decade following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that divided the nation and caused chaos, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or activists want to engage even with the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer supports unification or the existing arrangement. They composes two essays that aim for objectivity in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and societal statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions cover national emblems, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated the writer. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the notion that there might be good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters say they prefer unification but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate points, he said. "Somebody will win here and somebody will ultimately be defeated but all factions has possesses something to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should engage with the debate, said the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
